Main Article Content
Estimation of suspended sediment transport in a catchment area is very important to manage water resources, construction of dam and barrage, as well as to protect the surrounding environment. The daily monsoon sediment and flow were observed physically and quantity of total sediment input by the two major rivers of the south Mahanadi deltaic rivers to Lagoon Chilika were calculated during pre Naraj barrage (FY 2000 to 2003) and post Naraj Barrage period (FY’s 2004, 2012, 2013) establishing an observatory in the rivers the Daya and the Bhargovi.[b] The non-linear complex relationship between quantity of suspended sediment transport and volume of river-discharge inflicts challenge to the estimation process. In this paper, two southern-most distributaries, the Daya and the Bhargovi of the Mahanadi River System which flow into Chilika lagoon are studied. Random Forest, an ensemble machine learning algorithm is used to estimate the transport of sediment by these two distributaries using predictive modeling. Predicted figures based on the gathered data from these distributaries during pre-barrage period 2000-2003 have been compared with the observed data gathered in post-barrage years 2004, 2012 and 2013. Comparative data suggests that the construction of Naraj barrage has significantly reduced the concentration of sediment influx into Chilika lagoon while controlling the discharge through effective barrage management.
Syvitski PMJ, Kettner AJ, Overeem I, Hutton EWH, Hannon MT, Brakenridge GR, et al., Sinking deltas due to human activities”, Nature Geosciences; 2009.
Nageswara Rao K, Sadakata N. Holocene Evolution of Deltas on the East Coast of India "Delta of the World " Proceedings, 8th Symposium on Coastal and Ocean Management held July 19-23,New Orleans, Louisiana, USA. 1993;1-15.
Mishra SP, Mishra SKu, Das K. Geo Dynamics, Salinity Gradient, and Vegetation Inter-dependence in Chilika Lagoon, a Tropical Wetland in Eastern India, Journal of Wetlands Environmental Management, Indonesia. 2019;7(1):1-22.
Mishra S. P., 2017, Management of the sediment transported by the south Mahanadi deltaic rivers to the Chilika lagoon. Int., Jour. Adv. Research, Vol, 5(6),pp- 1005-1020
Mishra SP. Stochastic Modelling of Flow and Sediment of the Rivers at Delta head, East Coast of India, American Journal of Operation Research, Scientific Research. 2017;7(6):331-347.
Chilika Development Authority DPR. Integrated Coastal Zone Management: Strengthening of Wetland Research &Training Centre and Bio-diversity Conservation on Chilika Lagoon”, zmpodisha.org/./Chilika; 2012.
Ministry of Environment and Forests. Visit to Chilika Lake, Orissa, a wetland included under the National Wetland Conservation and Management Programme of the Ministry of Environment and Forests. Report on the Visit of A Three-Member Team For Conducting A Half-Yearly Review. 2008;1-22,
Chakrapani GJ, Subramanian V. Preliminary studies on the geochemistry of the Mahanadi river basin, India, Chemical Geology. 1990;81:241–253.
Chandramohan P, Kumar VS, Nayak BU. Coastal processes along the shorefront of Chilka lake. Indian J. Mar. Sci. 1993;22:268–272.
Bharali B, Rath S, Sharma R. A brief review of Mahanadi delta and the deltaic sediments in Mahanadi basin, Mem. Geol. Soc. India. 1991;22:31-49.
Gamage N, Smakhtin V. Do river deltas in east India retreat? A case study of the Krishna delta. Geomorphology. 2009;103:533–540.
Syvitski JPM, Kettner A. Sediment flux and the Anthropocene Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 1938;369:957-97.
Gupta H, Kao Shuh JI, Dai M. The role of mega dams in reducing sediment ﬂuxes: A case study of large Asian rivers, Journal of Hydrology. 2012;464:447-458.
Dandekar P. Shrinking and Sinking Deltas: Major role of Dams in delta subsidence and effective sea level rise, South Asia Network on Dams Rivers and People. 2014;1-14.
Panda DK, Kumar A, Mohanty S. Recent trends in sediment load of the tropical (Peninsular) river basins of India. Global Planet. Change. 2011;75(3–4):108–118.
Shaji KA. Why-the-kaveri-delta-is-shrinking-and-farm-productivity-with-it, The wire in; 2019.
Sanil Ku V, Pathak KC, Pednekar P, Raju NSN, Gowthaman R. Coastal processes along the Indian coastline, Current Science. 2006;91(4).
Lal NK, Siawal A, Kaul AK. Evolution of East Coast of India – a plate tectonic reconstruction”, Journal Geological Society of India, Volume. 2009;73:249-260.
Misra Pavani, Sampat Tandon, Sinha Rajiv. Holocene climate records from lake sediments in India: Assessment of coherence across climate zones, Earth-Science Reviews. 2019;190:370- 397,
DOI:10. 1016 /j. earscirev.2018.12.017
Mahalick NK. A Study of the morphological features and bore hole cuttings in understanding the evolution and geological processes in Mahanadi Delta in East Coast of India, Jour. of Geo. Society of India. 2006;67(5).
Kumaran KPN, Limay R, Padmalal. India’s fragile coast with special reference to late quarterynary dynamics, Proc Indian National Science Academy. 2012;78(3):343-352.
Prabhakaran K, Anbarasu K. Evolution of Vaigai Delta, Tamilnadu, India (East Coast) During Quaternary, International Journal of Geomatics and Geosciences. 2010;1(2).
Sundaresh, Mani Murali R, Seelam Jaya Ku, Gaur AS. Shoreline changes along Tamil Nadu coast: A study based on archaeological and coastal dynamics perspective, Indian Journal of Geo-Marine Sciences. 2014;43(7):1167-1176.
Mishra SP. Delineation of fluvial-Aeolian dunes along the SMD and Chilika coasts of Odisha, India, Int. Journal of Advance Research. 2017;5(12):412-425.
Samuel A, Joy KJ, Bhagat S. Integrated water management of the Mahanadi Basin: Water resources, water allocation and inter-sectoral use.Forum for Policy Dialogue on Water Conflicts in India, Pune. 2017;1-79.
Chander S, Gujrati A, Hakeem KA, Garg V, Issac AM, Dhote PR, Kumar V, Sahay A. Water quality assessment of River Ganga and Chilika lagoon using AVIRIS-NG hyperspectral data, Current Science. 2019;116(7):1172-1181.
Pattanaik Ajit. “Rejuvilation of Chilika Lagoon, restoration of coastal wetland with community participation”, EPTRI-Envis News letter. (Fragile ecosystem of Eastern Ghat). 2005;2(2).
Mishra SP, Jena JG. “Effects of variable inflow from Northern major rivers In to the Chilika Lagoon, Odisha, India”, Int Journal of Lakes and Rivers. 2012;5(2):123-132.
Dudek G. Short-Term Load Forecasting using Random Forests. In: Filev D. et al. (eds) Intelligent Systems'2014. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing. Springer, Cham. 2015;323
Kane Michael J, Price Natalie, Scotch Matthew and Rabinowitz Peter. Comparison of ARIMA and Random Forest time series models for Prediction of Avianinfluenza H5N1 Outbreaks, BMC Bioinformatics. 2014;15:276.
Tyralis H, Papacharalampous G. Variable Selection in Time Series Forecasting Using Random Forests. Algorithms. 2017;10:114.
Weka. Weka 3: Machine Learning Software in Java; 2019.Available:https://www.cs.waikato. ac.nz/ml/weka/
Breiman L. Random forests,Mach. Learning. 2001;45(1):5–32.
Amrehn M, Mualla F, et al. The Random Forest Classifier in WEKA: Discussion and New Developments for Imbalanced Data;Balanced Random Forest Classifier in WEKA. 2018;1-6.