Understanding the Growth and Trend Patterns of Palm Oil Imports in India: An Innovative Trend Analysis

K. Naga Latha *

Department of Statistics and Computer Applications, Agricultural College, ANGRAU, Bapatla, Andhra Pradesh -522101, India.

V. Srinivasa Rao

Department of Statistics and Computer Applications, Agricultural College, ANGRAU, Bapatla, Andhra Pradesh -522101, India.

C. Sarada

ICAR-Indian Institute of Oilseed Research, Hyderabad, Telangana -500030, India.

A. Amarender Reddy

ICAR-National Institute of Biotic Stress Management, Raipur -493225, India.

K. N. Sreenivasulu

Department of Statistics and Computer Applications, Agricultural College, ANGRAU, Pulivendula, Andhra Pradesh -522101, India.

*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.


Abstract

Aim: India, with its large population, is one of the world's largest consumers of edible oils, and palm oil is a major component of this consumption. The objective of the study was to understand the growth and trend patterns of palm oil imports in India.

Data Description: Monthly palm oil imports to India in terms of quantity from April 2007 to March 2023 was collected from various sources, including ICT Trade Map and UNCOMTRADE, based on the six-digit Harmonized System (HS) code.

Methodology: Various parametric (Linear regression) and non-parametric (Modified Mann-Kendall’s Test, Sen’s slope and Innovative Trend analysis) approaches used for analyzing the trend in the India’s palm oil imports quantity.

Results: The analysis revealed a mixed trend in palm oil imports, with a weak but definite pattern indicated by the linear regression analysis (R² = 0.1079). The Modified Mann-Kendall test identified significant growth in August and September, while the Innovative Trend Analysis highlighted strong increasing trends in February, March, April, and August, with September showing the most significant import growth.

Conclusion: These findings underscore the importance of monitoring and understanding palm oil import trends for policymakers, traders, and stakeholders in the edible oil industry.

Keywords: Vegetable oils, palm oil, imports, innovative trend analysis, Sen’s slope, modified Mann-Kendall’s test


How to Cite

Latha , K. N., Rao , V. S., Sarada, C., Reddy, A. A., & Sreenivasulu , K. N. (2024). Understanding the Growth and Trend Patterns of Palm Oil Imports in India: An Innovative Trend Analysis. Archives of Current Research International, 24(5), 140–149. https://doi.org/10.9734/acri/2024/v24i5691

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Singh DJ, Pritwani DR. Evolving regulatory landscape of edible oils in india ȃ a brief overview. IVPA Sovenir. 2022;56-66.

Gunstone F. Vegetable oils in food technology: composition, properties and uses. John Wiley & Sons; 2011.

Robbelen G. Mutation breeding for quality improvement—a case study for oil seed crops. Mutation Breeding Rev., No. 6., Joint FAO/IAEA division of nuclear techniques in food and agriculture, 1990; 1–44.

Manoharan TR. Oil Palm Sector In India. The Scope of influencing Business and Industry to Reduce India’s Ecological Foot print in South East Asia WWF-India retrieved from awsassets. wwfindia. org/downloads/palm oil study in india a_report. pdf accessed on 2015;5 (08).

Saeyang R, Nissapa A. Trade competitiveness in the global market: an analysis of four palm oil products from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. International Journal of Agricultural Technology. 2021;17(3):1077-1094.

Tandra H, Suroso AI, Syaukat Y, Najib M. The determinants of competitiveness in global palm oil trade. Economies. 2022;1 0(6):132.

Mishra P, Vishwajith KP, Padmanaban K, Sahu PK. Modelling and forecasting of palm oil production, import, export, domestic supply and waste in major countries of the World. Indian Journal of Economics and Development. 2017;13(2): 243-256.

Saini S, Gulati A. Price distortions in Indian agriculture. Available:http://icrier.org/pdf/Price_Distortions_in_Indian_Agriculture_2017.pdf Accessed on: May 2018.

VR R, Jha GK. Oilseeds sector in India: A trade policy perspective. Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences. 2019;89(1):73-8.

Ahmed, F. Study of Economic Aspects of Oil Palm Cultivation. International Journal of Research in Engineering, IT and Social Sciences. 2021;11(11):7-18.

Surendran U, Anagha B, Gopinath G, Joseph EJ. Long-term rainfall analysis towards detection of meteorological drought over Kozhikode district of Kerala. Journal of Climate Change. 2019; 5(2):29–34. Available:https://doi.org/10.3233/JCC190010.

Gilbert RO. Statistical Methods for Environmental Pollution Monitoring, Wiley, NY; 1987.

Kendall MG. Rank Correlation Methods. 4th Ed. Griffin; 1976.

Mann, HB. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica. 2014;13: 245-259.

Sen, PK. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1968;63:1379–1389 Available:https://doi.org/10.1023/B:WARM.0000043140.61082.60

Yue S, Wang C. The Mann–Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series. Water Resource Manag. 2004;18 (3):201–218.

Şen Z. An innovative trend analysis methodology. J Hydrol Eng. 2012;17: 1042–1046.

Şen Z. Innovative trend significance test and applications. Theor Appl Climatol. 2017;127:939–947.

Patakamuri SK, Das B. Trendchange: innovative trend analysis and time-series change point analysis. R package version 1.1; 2019.