Assessment of Milk Production and Per Capita Growth in Northeast India
Martha Pasar *
Livestock Production Management Division, ICAR-National Dairy Research Institute, Karnal, Haryana, India.
Tusoing Alphonse Houmai H
Division of Dairy Economics, Statistics & Management, ICAR-National Dairy Research Institute, Karnal, Haryana, India.
Akanksha Srivas
ICAR-KVK, East Sikkim, Sikkim, India.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Background and Aims: The dairy sector in Northeast India continue to face challenges with regard to the low and inconsistent milk production and low per capita availability, leading to high dependence on imports from other states. This study examines long-term growth in milk production and per capita availability using Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). The milk production in the Northeastern states makes up only 0.70 percent of the country’s total milk output. Assam leads regional production, followed by Tripura, while states like Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh contribute minimally. The region’s per capita availability is 71 g/day. Increasing urbanization, changing lifestyles, and rising purchasing power are driving higher demand for milk and dairy products, creating new market opportunities. However, problems with marketing, processing infrastructure, and perceptions of quality limit growth.
Study Design: The study is a secondary time series data, designed to study the milk production and per capita growth in the Northeastern states. The study on this region is important as milk production is fluctuating over the years despite an increase in milk production nationwide.
Place and Duration of Study: Northeast India, for the period 2010-2023.
Methodology: Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is a measure that shows the average annual growth rate of a variable over a period of time, assuming the growth happened at a steady (compounded) rate each year. To study the spatio-temporal productivity dynamics of milk production and per capita availability in different states of the Northeastern region, the exponential growth equation was used to compute the annual growth rates.
Results and Conclusion: The regional average growth fluctuates between small positive values and several negative values. While some states contribute to regional improvement, widespread negative values in recent years between 2020-2023 indicate a decreasing trend, especially in states like Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Nagaland, and Mizoram. Outliers in the per capita availability are observed in Arunachal Pradesh throughout the study period. Assam is the leading milk producer in the region, followed by Tripura, which contributes about 62.74% and 11.76%, respectively, to the country’s total milk production among the northeastern states.
Keywords: Dairy, dairy cooperatives, growth rate, Northeast India