Archives of Current Research International

Murrah is known as "Black Gold," and it plays an important role in human nutrition and employment. The Murrah breed, that is native to Haryana state (Accession No. INDIA_BUFFALO_0500_MURRAH_01001) is one of the best dairy buffalo breed. Murrah is now considered as a world-class improver buffalo dairy breed. The study aims to predict the lactation yield of Murrah buffaloes at an early stage of lactation using 25 years of data on production traits for first 4 parities. The data included 1524 lactations from 644 buffaloes sired by 213 bulls, with 5,17,293 daily milk yield records for 305- and 455-day lactation. Non-genetic factors (period of calving and parity) significantly affected milk yield (P<0.05), so data were corrected before fitting; Gamma Function (GF), Exponential Function (EF), Polynomial Regression Function (PRF), and Mixed Log Function (MLF). For 305-day yield, adjusted R² values were 99.72% (GF), 97.99% (EF), 99.89% (PRF), and 98.82% (MLF), with the average root mean squares error (RMSE) 0.01%, 0.02%, 0.006%, and 0.02%, respectively. For 455-day yield, adjusted R² values were 98.10% (GF), 96.80% (EF), 99.50% (PRF), and 99.10% (MLF), with RMSE 0.04%, 0.05%, 0.02%, and 0.02%. Thus, for 305-day and 455-day milk yield prediction in Murrah buffalo, the Polynomial Regression Function was the best fit model with higher R² and lower RMSE value. On the basis of outcome, the new model was developed for the prediction of standard lactation. However, the new model for extended lactation of 455-days showed a better fit than previous models considered in the study, with 1.5 % higher Adjusted R² and 0.003 % lower RMSE value, by incorporating a new constant for variable square root of day of lactation.