Cotton Production in Madhya Pradesh: Trend and Decomposition Analysis
U. D. Bankar
School of Agricultural Sciences, G H Raisoni University, Saikheda, Madhya Pradesh, India.
U. P. Gaware *
School of Agricultural Sciences, G H Raisoni University, Saikheda, Madhya Pradesh, India.
P. P. Baviskar
School of Agricultural Sciences, G H Raisoni University, Saikheda, Madhya Pradesh, India.
N. R. Alapati
School of Agricultural Sciences, G H Raisoni University, Saikheda, Madhya Pradesh, India.
T. A. Sheikh
School of Agricultural Sciences, G H Raisoni University, Saikheda, Madhya Pradesh, India.
S. J. Shedmake
School of Agricultural Sciences, G H Raisoni University, Saikheda, Madhya Pradesh, India.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Madhya Pradesh has emerged as a major contributor to India’s cotton economy, evolving from a peripheral producer into a state of national strategic importance in extra-long staple (ELS) and organic cotton. This study presents a diagnostic analysis of the state’s cotton production dynamics over a 20-year period (2005–06 to 2024–25), covering the Bt revolution and the more recent challenges associated with pest resistance and yield stagnation.
This research uses secondary data from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Madhya Pradesh, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare. Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) analysis is used to estimate growth dynamics, the Cuddy–Della Valle instability index (CDVII) evaluates production risk, and the Minhas–Vaidyanathan decomposition model attributes production changes to area, yield, and interaction effects across six major districts—Khargone, Barwani, Khandwa, Burhanpur, Dhar, and Ratlam.
The findings show that 2005–06 to 2014–15 was characterised by rapid growth supported by both area and yield following the adoption of Bt technology, whereas 2015–16 to 2024–25 was characterised by stagnating acreage and, more critically, declining production and productivity across all six districts after the 2018–19 peak. The decomposition analysis confirms that area expansion, rather than yield improvement, was the dominant driver of production growth over the full study period and that the recent contraction was driven by falling yields. This pattern is consistent with regional evidence of pink bollworm resistance and climate variability reported elsewhere (ICAR–CICR, 2020), although the present study does not directly test these mechanisms.
The study concludes with policy recommendations aligned with current national cotton productivity and quality initiatives, emphasising next-generation seed technology, climate-resilient agronomy, targeted risk management, and district-specific micro-planning to move Madhya Pradesh towards a sustainable, yield-led growth model.
Keywords: Cotton production, Madhya Pradesh, compound annual growth rate, Cuddy–Della Valle instability index, Minhas–Vaidyanathan decomposition, area effect, yield effect, production instability, district-level analysis, pink bollworm