Growth, Regional Shifts and Policy Breaks in Indian Pulses Production, 1970-2025
Gina Naiding
Institute of Agri Business Management, Swami Keshwanand Rajasthan Agricultural University, Bikaner, Rajasthan 334006, India.
Vishal Ghorela *
Institute of Agri Business Management, Swami Keshwanand Rajasthan Agricultural University, Bikaner, Rajasthan 334006, India.
Gourav Dama
Institute of Agri Business Management, Swami Keshwanand Rajasthan Agricultural University, Bikaner, Rajasthan 334006, India.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Background: Indian pulses output has increased over several decades, but changes in regional concentration and responses to major policy phases remain incompletely characterised.
Aims: To assess growth, instability, regional concentration and policy-related structural breaks in Indian pulses production from 1970-71 to 2024-25.
Study Design: A secondary time-series and state-level panel analysis.
Place and Duration of Study: India and 13 major pulse-producing states; the analysis was conducted at the Institute of Agri Business Management, SKRAU, Bikaner, in 2026.
Methodology: Data from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics and ICAR-Indian Institute of Pulses Research were analysed using compound growth rates, the Cuddy-Della Valle index, output decomposition, Herfindahl and Gini indices, sigma and beta convergence, bootstrapped sup-F and Bai-Perron break tests, and a policy dummy model with robust errors.
Results: Production grew at 1.56% per annum (P < .001), with yield increases accounting for 61.3% of the gain, and instability declined. The combined share of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra in output rose from 41.3% to 57.5%. State yields converged in the long run (β = −1.51, P = .004) but diverged after 2016-17 (P = .01). The 2016-17 policy push raised area by 18.9% and production by 24.8% in one step (P ≤ .002) without a yield gain, while the National Food Security Mission raised area growth by 0.81 percentage points (P = .02). Results were unchanged when 2025-26 advance estimates were added.
Conclusion: Recent gains came mainly from price-led area expansion in rainfed central and western states. Self-sufficiency in pulses now depends on yield-led growth and support for lagging states.
Keywords: Pulses, growth and instability, regional concentration, yield convergence, structural breaks, minimum support price, National Food Security Mission