Forecasting Maize Production in Telangana State Using Arima Model
M. Maheshnath *
Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, Professor Jayashankar Telangana State Agricultural University, Hyderabad, Telangana, India.
R. Vijaya Kumari
Professor Jayashankar Telangana State Agricultural University, Hyderabad, India.
K. Suhasini
Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, Rajendranagar, Hyderabad, India.
D. Srinivasa Reddy
Cost of Cultivation Scheme, Professor Jayashankar Telangana State Agricultural University, Hyderabad, Telangana, India.
A. Meena
Department of Statistics and Mathematics, College of Agriculture, Rajendranagar, Hyderabad, India.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
The study utilized the Box-Jenkins approach for forecasting maize production in Telangana state. It involved the analysis of 55 years of empirical annual observations of maize production. The autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF) were calculated to analyze the data. A suitable Box-Jenkins ARIMA model was fitted, and the validity of the model was examined using conventional statistical methods. Lastly, the next three years' worth of maize production was predicted using the autoregressive integrated moving average model's forecasting capability.
Keywords: Maize, forecasting, Autocorrelation Function (ACF), Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)